WHY ARE INTEREST RATES FALLING?
Market Updates
05/16/14If the economy is so rosy, as the Federal Reserve has insinuated with tapering and talk of higher inflation (PPI is up 0.6% in April and 2.1% over the past year), why would interest rates be falling? Under normal circumstances, falling interest rates imply the economy is not as robust as it seems. However, this assumption depends on the fact that central banks around the globe are not engaging in unprecedented easing and interest rate manipulation. Right now it is hard to know for sure, but we will find out in the next few months if the bond market is correct about an economic slowdown, or if interest rates are artificially low because of manipulation by central banks. If it is the latter, we expect to continue to see rising inflation. The game the central banks are playing is unprecedented and no one knows the future ramifications of this sort of policy, including the Federal Reserve. Evidence of the uncertainty by the Fed of their own policies comes courtesy of John Williams, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank who, on January 16th of this year said, “There are nagging concerns that large-scale asset purchases carry with them particular risks to the economy or the health of the financial system that we still don’t fully understand”. There is a great documentary entitled Money for Nothing that not only teaches it’s viewers an excellent history lesson on the Federal Reserve, but also explains how many of the FED’s policies, especially the ones implemented to try and avert a crisis over the last 20 years, have actually done the opposite and have just intensified the problem. We have purchased 10 of these DVD’s and have made them available to our clients over the past two months. We have finally completed sharing the DVD with everyone who originally asked to see it and wanted to remind people one more time that we have copies of the documentary. For those of you who have not seen it yet, just e-mail us and we would be happy to add you to the list and send you a DVD along with a return envelope to send it back. Europe Fireworks Coming? Elections to the European Parliament will be held in the European Union (EU) from May 22nd to May 25th. There has been a steady rise in “anti-EU” sentiment of late and there appears to be a number of candidates in these elections that are running “anti-EU” campaigns that could be elected to the parliament. It could be an interesting next month for Europe and so we steal a quote from Terrell Owens in anticipation, “Get your popcorn ready!” What does this mean for investors? First and foremost, diversification is the most important thing in a portfolio right now. In our opinion, as part of that diversification, it is a good time to diversify in non-traditional assets. Why? There are two main reasons we think non-traditional assets are a good place to have exposure right now: 1. They are not correlated to the stock market. 2. On a stand alone basis, we believe our alternative investments can outperform. CNBC – THOR in Top 100 Fee-Only Wealth Management firms in Country!! Just yesterday, CNBC came out with their inaugural list of the top 100 fee-only wealth management firms in the country. THOR ranked #66. You can visit the entire list at http://www.cnbc.com/id/101619698. Sincerely, Your THOR Team